FAO Food Price Index rises in October to highest level in 18 months

Global cereal production and trade likely to decline from last year

The benchmark for world food commodity prices surged to its highest level in 18 months in October, led by a sharp increase in vegetable oil quotations, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reported.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a set of globally traded food commodities, averaged 127.4 points in October, up 2.0 per cent from September and 5.5 per cent from its value a year ago. Nevertheless, the index remained 20.5 per cent below its March 2022 peak.

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index spiked by 7.3 per cent in October, hitting a two-year high as a result of rising quotations for palm, soy, sunflower and rapeseed oil, driven mainly by concerns about production.

The FAO Cereal Price Index increased by 0.9 per cent in October, led by rising wheat and maize export prices. Global wheat prices were affected by unfavorable weather conditions in major northern hemisphere exporters as well as the re-introduction of an unofficial price floor in the Russian Federation and rising tensions in the Black Sea region. World maize prices rose as well, driven in part by strong domestic demand and transport challenges in Brazil due to low river levels. By contrast, the FAO All Rice Price Index declined by 5.6 per cent in October, reflecting lower indica rice quotations driven by expectations of heightened competition among exporters following India’s removal of export restrictions on non-broken rice.

The FAO Sugar Price Index increased by 2.6 per cent amid persisting concerns over the 2024/25 production outlook in Brazil following extended dry weather conditions. Rising international crude oil prices also contributed to the increase in sugar quotations by shifting more sugarcane toward ethanol production, while the weakening of the Brazilian real against the United States dollar limited the increase.

The FAO Dairy Price Index rose by 1.9 per cent in October, averaging 21.4 per cent above its level at the same time last year. The increase was primarily driven by higher international cheese and butter prices, while quotations for milk powders declined.

Bucking the general upward trend, the FAO Meat Price Index dropped by 0.3 per cent from September, mainly due to lower pig meat prices resulting from increased slaughter rates in Western Europe amid weak domestic and international demand. World poultry prices fell slightly in October, while those of ovine meat remained stable. By contrast, bovine meat prices increased moderately, underpinned by stronger international purchases.

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